The demand for truck drivers has been high for a very long time now. Even in the terrible economy we’re experiencing now, most people who are qualified to become truck drivers and can meet the minimum requirements that trucking companies have in place are having relatively little difficulty breaking into the trucking industry and finding a truck driving job. The word “relatively” is key to that statement. I’m referring to the difficulty in finding a truck driving job versus the difficulty of finding work in most other industries across the United States. Now there are several factors that seem to be converging to create the “perfect storm” for truck driving demand in the decade ahead. Let’s take a look at what we could be facing.
Three Factors Affecting Truck Driver Demand
There are countless factors affecting the demand for truck drivers, but three important ones that I feel could converge to create a very high demand in the near future are:
- The increasing strength of the economy
- The Baby Boomers reaching retirement age
- The new CSA 2010 program
Let’s take a look at each one and the affect they could have on truck driver demand in the coming years
The Strength Of The Economy
The recent downturn in the economy has been brutal for so many people. Millions of job losses have led to millions of foreclosures and millions of workers looking for new jobs or new careers. Thankfully many of them have been able to turn to the trucking industry for much needed relief and a new start. Unfortunately, a lot of these people are not cut out to be truck drivers or live on the road. Maybe they have a spouse and children at home that they don’t like leaving behind. Maybe they enjoy the office environment because it suits their personality, training, and education. Maybe they enjoyed factory work because of the camaraderie of working with the same people every day. Regardless of their reasoning, once the economy picks up again a large number of current truck drivers will be getting out of the trucking industry hoping to find employment in a job or career that better suits them.
In the past few decades when the economy overall was solid, demand for truck drivers remained consistently high. If you met the minimum requirements for being a truck driver, getting into the industry was easy, and switching truck driving jobs was just as easy.
So when the economy picks up, the combination of the consistently strong demand for truck drivers along with the outflow of current drivers that don’t belong in the industry will likely put demand for drivers at a high level again. But wait, that’s not all.
Baby Boomers On The Brink Of Retirement
In an article from 2006 in the Wall Street Journal, they stated:
“Since 2000, the number of service and truck drivers 55 or older has surged 19%, to about 616,000, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. The percentage jump is quadruple that of truck drivers overall. At Schneider, about 3,000 of the carrier’s 15,000 drivers and independent contractors are older people.”
Another more recent story in Newsweek stated:
“At the nation’s largest trucking carrier the number of drivers 50 and over has increased by 46 percent since 2005—they now make up one third of their driving staff of 15,000.”
We’ve all heard similar numbers about the size of the baby boomer generation and there’s no question that in the coming years there will be a very large percentage of current truck drivers hitting retirement age and leaving the trucking industry altogether.
The New CSA 2010 program Will Cost Some Drivers Their Jobs
The CSA 2010 program will track the safety record of both truck drivers and trucking companies, and although the numbers vary wildly because of speculation, there is a consensus that a large number of truck drivers will either lose their jobs or find that employment in the trucking industry is either difficult or impossible for them due to their poor safety record. Now before we going flying off the handle here, we’re likely talking about less than one percent of the drivers nationwide. But when you consider that there are several million drivers nationwide, and add to that the number of people who will not be able to become truck drivers in the coming years because of the tighter standards, the numbers become significant in a hurry.
So Where Is Truck Driver Demand Headed?
Even with an economy that is solid but not booming, driver demand has always been high. If you add the retiring baby boomers and the new CSA 2010 program to the prospects of a recovering economy in the years ahead, the potential for truck driver demand for the foreseeable future seems to be very, very good.
Great information. On the topic of being 50 and up, I'm a connecticut guy that got caught up in the economy crash losing the job, fighting to keep my home and so on. I'm not a pro driver but have been around and have driven them for a few years. I'm willing to go over the road. Ya know not married, kids are in collage. Amen. I pursude the liciencing, passed the written with hazmat , now I'm looking to hire a semi with driver to save a few bucks instead of the $5000.00 school thing to take the pre-trip inspection and road test. What would you recommend, I would appreciate it.
Hi Bob. I strongly suggest you go through the proper schooling because it is a one in a million chance that anyone will hire you if you get your CDL without going to a legitimate school. Trucking companies want to know you were trained properly, not that you simply memorized some testing maneuvers to pass the CDL exam. Graduating from an accredited school is one way for them to know.
There are low-cost alternatives to private schooling though. You can look for a community college in your area that has a CDL training program which is generally much cheaper than a private school or you can go through a trucking company that runs their own CDL training program. These company-sponsored CDL training programs can wind up being free in the end, or very inexpensive, if you stay with the company for the required amount of time after training, usually about one year. These are both excellent alternatives to expensive private schools.
Follow these links to find truck driving schools in your area and get information on free or inexpensive company-sponsored CDL training from our sister site TruckingTruth.
Hope this helps!
Hey Brett thank you, good advice. It just that its so hard out here I'm worried about the expense. I'm going check those links you sent. Thank you again..Bob
Brett,
Iam a 51 year old women, out of work due to the ecomony. My ex-husband was a trucker, and I truly enjoyed going with him. Yesterday I attended a dept. of labor workshop here in idaho and was told that WIA, would have funds available to pay for my schooling should I decide Trucking is my new career match. I've previously driven school bus for a private school and was a otr driver for amerifleet driving cars to and from different customers. My question to you is, I am pretty much alone in life now, no spouse, grown kids. What do you think my chances at my age are to get a good driving job to see thur to retirement?
Well I have great news for you. Your age in trucking is actually an advantage. The average age of drivers nationwide is somewhere in the low 40's, so you're barely above that – you'll fit right in. Trucking companies welcome older drivers but are quite concerned about bringing in younger ones. Even though the required age to drive interstate is 21, many companies require a driver to be 23 or even 25. The insurance companies are the ones who set the requirements this way because it's been shown that older drivers tend to make safer, more prudent decisions than younger drivers. So almost any company in America would rather have someone who is 51 than someone who is 21.
So your age is no concern at all. If your health, your driving record, and your criminal record are in good shape and you feel you're at a place in your life where trucking sounds like a good place to be, then I don't see anything that should be holding you back. So far, so good
Hi Brett. This the first time I've seen this site. Enjoyed your insightful commentary. Just a few thoughts to consider.
1) It seems to me that the jury is still out on whether the economy is going to improve much or when. Severe damage has been done to the economy and our financial system. The current measures by government certainly have not yet proven we're on the right track, though I hope so.
2) Many of the baby boomers will find that they are uanble to retire due to the heavy loss of value in their retirement funds. Some current retirees have found they don't have enough money to stay in retirement and have returned to work. I believe the referenced Wall Street Journal articles support this to some degree.
3) I agree that the CSA 2010 program will certainly reduce the available commercial driver pool. Will it be enough to offset the current job losses? Who knows?
Some excellent points Tim, and I'm glad you enjoy the site!
#1 – I totally agree. We're all pretty much holding our breath, waiting, and hoping.
#2 – Again, totally agree. This has been the worst decade in the stock market in history according to CNBC. Certainly some will have to push their retirements out a bit, but you can only do that for so long. The number of baby boomers is gigantic and even if a sizable number of them push retirement out a few years you're still going to have a massive drain in the number of workers available as they finally do retire. So same effect, but possibly with a muted response the first few years.
#3 – I would say that CSA 2010 will have some impact, but certainly not a major one. It will likely effect far less than 1% of the current drivers, but will also prevent some new ones from coming into the industry. The effect won't make headlines, but it will be a small part of the overall picture I believe.